Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.770564 26.141487 28.811800 32.078952 36.021298 40.697007 46.777406
2025-01-26 20.308539 23.352920 27.066856 32.061290 38.827554 48.063431 62.446945
2025-02-02 18.126177 21.524299 25.923329 32.299509 41.840349 56.722922 84.946625
2025-02-09 16.607196 20.216510 25.113766 32.669816 45.024922 66.996147 119.204892
2025-02-16 15.381268 19.086539 24.303411 32.776365 47.744287 77.910414 170.519075
2025-02-23 14.276285 17.968510 23.313533 32.347847 49.348388 87.641997 242.513350
2025-03-02 13.478983 17.189461 22.702845 32.387697 51.813862 101.250794 394.568469
2025-03-09 12.742435 16.419726 21.998826 32.113445 53.539462 114.610903 704.839789
2025-03-16 12.096814 15.724965 21.328087 31.769314 55.004522 128.995853 1632.387902
2025-03-23 11.537506 15.114113 20.725400 31.445267 56.427153 145.438731 10812.475010
2025-03-30 11.068491 14.605907 20.239686 31.265389 58.175983 166.540059 NaN
2025-04-06 10.562627 14.005717 19.544278 30.561467 58.327324 180.858871 NaN
2025-04-13 10.429530 13.990772 19.860033 32.015924 65.296278 257.458788 NaN
2025-04-20 10.042569 13.542906 19.376242 31.688145 66.788386 303.009120 NaN
2025-04-27 9.748266 13.227834 19.103323 31.788933 69.817942 387.848089 NaN
2025-05-04 9.504280 12.980104 18.930528 32.091814 73.796688 538.901688 NaN
2025-05-11 9.251256 12.702282 18.678498 32.170488 77.063827 763.604133 NaN
2025-05-18 8.957535 12.340823 18.242831 31.744815 78.154635 997.611100 NaN
2025-05-25 8.737579 12.093178 18.005435 31.778994 81.344684 1661.333923 NaN
2025-06-01 8.499386 11.803014 17.666358 31.511463 83.111038 2848.549647 NaN
2025-06-08 8.269597 11.517228 17.317793 31.177290 84.477709 5962.198826 NaN
2025-06-15 8.056148 11.250799 16.991184 30.862971 85.877566 26957.227167 NaN
2025-06-22 7.869607 11.023471 16.728271 30.688510 88.026246 NaN NaN